TFIF

Right lets see if we can stay in the winning vein.

and… Kalashnikov.. The Real Deal or False Dawn??…

Races in no particular order are as follows :

  1. 1410 Hexham – Little Bruce and Le Drapeau
  2. 1430 Warwick – Je Suis Charlie and Peterborough
  3. 1445 Hexham – Christmas in USA and New List
  4. 1505 Warwick – Travertine and Gardiner’s Hill
  5. 1515 Hexham – Corner Creek and McGintys Dream

So there we have it , five of the best, usual format , Bullet then Buckle.

One fact I do wanna now start to track is the correlation of the results and the race type , flat, hurdles, chase to see if one type are much more proliferate than others.

Results to follow and will update as I can , all selections to stand now regardless of market changes.

RESULTS :

1. LITTLE BRUCE 1st @ 7.0 (Good start although LD ran unplaced)

2. JE SUIS CHARLIE is 2nd @ 8.86 ( The Buckle bets are looking good today, one more for my treble to land , hopefully the next then I can dream big ).

3. Blankety Blank…that’s a damn shame as both ran ok only to falter coming home 5th and 6th.

4. better as we hit another 4th place but we did hit a Buckle winner as Gardiners Hill romped home 1st @ 5.9

5. And a very disappointing end to the bet as we drew a blank on the last against so much expectation!!.

10 x £25 EW single

Cost = £500

Return = £550.00

Small Profit on the day with the singles, would have been a loss on any multi bet….

If I had done 10 £25 WIN singles …

Cost £250

Return £350 , so another £50 in profit ( £100 total ) , not a lot of difference but still a difference.. 2 Winners from the 10 Selections….

Thoughts??

 

Strange Day was Tuesday..

Yes it was indeed but another of those days that the market was spot on and most notably the Betfair market, the only one that counts tbh.

WE had a race with a 7/4f with it being 9.0 Bar…Hmm that tells you all you need to know and I am an advocate of never backing horses that have just run to a career high or best because they very very often don’t follow that up , that said..this one did iin a 6f sprint trapping like a greyhound, bagging the rail and never getting bothered…and this happened a couple of times where the Market spoke and spoke and all you had to do was listen…not any old move but significant moves.

So onto today and the remainder of the week..

just gonna do core stat Bullet and Buckles ( Regardless of Market interference ) and do these as £25EW singles.

1.1245 Muss : Gentleman James & Urban Code – ( Bullet & Buckle ) – Unplaced & 3rd @ 6.59

2.1255 Chep – Kapga De Lily & Mere Anarchy – 4th @ 20.78 and 3rd @ 8.25

3.1400 Chep – Morianour & All Kings – 2nd @ 9.6 and Unplaced.

Results to follow…lets see who comes out on top this week?…

1245 : Both ran well @ 7.82 and 6.59 and both traded around 2.6 in running having looked good in stages, both however dropped away at the last as Diozard ran out a fairly comfortable winner.

1255: Again both ran solid races without really causing a stir however they both finished in the money coming 3rd & 4th ( 17 runner Hcap , 4 places paid ).

1400: Another decent go as Morianour gave it all right to the last and then had no more to match the very impressive winner that had 31L between him and 3rd , But another place and a 2nd @ 9.6

Backing ALL 6 today in a Variety of EW Multis would have again paid some very attractive dividends.

bet

 

Where’s your Melon Man…

Happy Monday 😆,

Enable , what more can you say ? , better than Cracksman? Tough call , better than Frankel? No , Nothing will be ,Better than Winx? Most definitely running on a tight circular track from the outside on horrible ground she ground out probably her best win to date getting the better of a very in form Magical in what for me was the race of the year , well done Frankie , great ride and run and I hope she stays in training for a tilt at a 3rd Arc.!

What do we have today on the Bullet n Buckle front? Just two races today for an easy EW double.

1. 1345 Hereford -BALKINSTOWN (Bullet ) & Apache Prince ( Buckle ) although the Buckle is changeable currently as the market just starts to pick up.

These two were 4th and 5th however the actual BB and Buckle at the off were 2nd and 3rd respectively @10.5 and 12.0.

2. 1445 Hereford – Samson & Everyday Hour*

Two fairly straight forward races to start the week.

Samson was 2nd @ 12.98 whilst early bullet Bogarius was 3rd @ 19.0

.

Friday Review

So a very tough day thought wise as the markets in some of these were extremely volatile. but we ended up with 4 completed races that produced 1 Winner ( Buckle ) and 2 x  2nd places ( Bullet ) so a profit was made on the singles and no loss on the trebles.

Thoughts anyone on what we have done this week/?

On another note the mighty Samcro had her wings well and truly clipped today being beat by Bedrock ( ridden by the excellent Rachael Blackmore ) but for me that isn’t the fact i will take from this its the fact that she could only beat Sharjah by 4 lengths into 3rd.

This is the same Sharjah that couldn’t get within 15L of Samcro in the Deloitte, the same Sharjah that was beaten 14L by Getabird the same Getabird that was virtually Pulled up in the Supreme with Sharjah not doing much better coming 8th and beaten miles….for me this form is utter dogshit and i don’t think they have run to much more than around 125-130 here either draw a line through this and expect Samcro to improve by about 15-20lbs next run or accept that Samcro is finished as a hurdler ( lack of high end cruising speed ) and wait till she goes Chasing.

Thoughts??

Yay its Friday!!

Afternoon Guys n Dolls, a quick summary for yesterday..imo a good day almost a belter but still very satisfactory and gives plenty to work from and with.

Onto today….

No reviews as such just a list of the races and bets within…

  1. 1415 Newmarket – Bullet – DRAGONS VOICE @ 9.6 & Buckle – ROTHERWICK @ 12.0 ( *C NOTE has been backed in from 13.0 into 7.2 and would be an easy Buckle selection now ,  , that’s how quick they can change at times ).
  2. 1450 Newmarket – Bullet – ALFREDO @ 7.8 & Buckle – NIGHT STORY @ 9.6
  3. 1505 Wetherby – Bullet – KYLEMORE LOUGH @ 7.8 & Buckle -CRACKING FIND @ 8.4
  4. 1515 Uttoxeter – Bullet – NO HIDING PLACE @ 9.0 & Buckle – FROZEN FLAME @ 9.6
  5. 1525 Newmarket – Bullet -** NIETZSCHE @ 12.0 and Compton Mill @ 12.5 –

So we have 5 today to choose from , i think today i will have some EW Trebles , some fun and see where we go , The blog ( for stats and records ) will be having a standard £25 EW on all Bullets.

Results :

Race Nos 1 – Dragons Voice Ran a solid race losing 3rd in the final 50 yards and ghosted in  the frustrating but familiar 4th spot!!…However the late change on the Buckle ( half a point more and this would have gone straight in as the Bullet ) proved to be a correct move as C NOTE won @ 6/1 with the original Buckle (Rotherwick) running 3rd at 10/1 which is still a decent hit for those on EW.

Race Nos 2 – First thing to mention about this race is 2 minutes before the Alfredo was not only pushed out of the Bullet slot but drifted so much that he also lost the buckle slot that left Night Story as the new Bullet and Hillcrest View as the Buckle. That said i had no time to update so am left with the original selections ( Caveats applied at the very beginning of this journey ). So we ended up having the 2/1F win it from 4lb out of the weights with HV coming 3rd , strange race, stranger market far too much movement for my liking….

Race Nos 3 – due to three non runners the whole race was a void ( Race must contain at least 8 runners )

Race Nos 4 – No Hiding Place was 2nd @ 6/1 ( taking these early prices is paying off ).

Race Nos 5 – Nietzsche was 2nd @ 9/1

Thursday Edition

Afternoon All,

Quick Summary on Yesterday which was for me ( as stated ) the first day of the new trial period month.  3 Selections , one very strong one that was solid and the final one was weak however they all performed excellently with a 12/1 1st and 2 x 2nds @ 8/1 and 10/1 so for the more fearless a very good EW treble ( doesn’t happen often enough though ) but for us three £50 singles ( on the nose ) gives us a very healthy profit but I might have to revise my Stance on EW betting if they keep hitting as that would have brought home a very tasty profit.

Thoughts anyone? ? ? ?

So onto todays racing and Bullet Bets,

1445 Stratford : Markov is a good looking BB with the Buckle being Actival.

*Notes : Actival has been backed from 12/1 down to 3.25 and interesting there is £5k sat at both 1.83 and 1.44…with pennies either side. Very interesting market money?!….lets see what happens.

Result : Markov did nothing but in all honesty was not a BB as it had been pushed out just before the off but too late to change but hey ho however Actival the ” money horse ” although not winning ran a solid race just going down at the line to come 2nd at 3.55 bfsp.

1550 Stratford : Soupy Soups is Solid and is backed up by Cloth Cap ( Buckle ). * Update as Soupy Soups is another mover backed from a high of 11.5 down to 3.25!!….am I influencing the markets muahahaha..hardly…;-) ♥

Result : Soupy Soups ran a great race coming 2nd ( traded at 1.42 ) but was beaten by the Buckle as Cloth Cap is 1st @ 10/1 .. That’s a winner on the board for the Buckle!!..

16:00 Sedgefield : Russian Royale looks at first glance to be the strongest today but in truth it rarely works out as it looks. They are often deceiving. Champagne to Go is the Buckle in what looks to be a very lop sided race.

Result : Russian Royale did ok but only managed to ghost in 4th however we did or I should say Carthage did hit another Winner as her Buckle Bet Champagne to Go Won at 5.0 to put her firmly in command this month.

I am very tempted today to include all 6  in EW trebles.

All six selections would make for 40 Bets , with two loser , no winners and 4 placed cost £200 ( £5 stake ) and would return £535.20 ( at current odds ) so for a decent profit on 4 placed from the 6 and with at least £120 back ( £80 loss ) if only 3 from 6 place I think this is very fair bet  that could generate huge returns?

Thoughts anyone?..

1 – Loser

2 – Placed at 8.6

3 – Placed at 6.2

4 – Winner at 12.0

5 – Winner at 5.0

6 – Loser

Return ( Theoretical ) = £287 giving a profit of £87, 3 races and two winners this was so close to being a massive win as Actival only lost in a photo , the difference is this , Had Actival actually Won instead of coming 2nd in that Photo the bet would have paid a very nice £2600.00 , tight margins and sometimes you just need a bit of luck on your wide, another day it goes in.

i still think the results are very good, thoughts anyone??

Wednesday again…de ja vu!!

Well here we are back again on a Wednesday.  I am tired and weary but love my beautiful babies more than I could possibly imagine , they fill me with joy and give me the drive to get up and live each day, without them I would have passed a long time ago.

 

Back to the business of Horses and what Bullet Bets we have today. I will for the next day or three be offering both the Bullet Bet and a Bent Buckle ( almost a Bullet ) to see how they fare, but only the Bullet Bets will count for the purpose of the blog and the PnL at the month end ( Today counting on Novembers PnL ).

1440 Nottingham : BB on the tracker is showing as MADAM BOUNTY* however the Buckle is OCELOT ( masses of market movement making this a tough call , but based on the info I have I think its almost impossible to expect the Fav Dr Doro to win, too much money on everything else ).

Result : * Both Selections CHANGED AT 14:35* – Madam Butterfly was 2nd @ 8/1 ( traded at 1.12 ) and OCELOT was 1st @ 12/1 ( So the Buckles provided by Carthage are ahead today , Well Done Carthage ).

1510 Nottingham : POTTERS LADY JANE is a clear BB with HANDIWORK as the Buckle ( although Handiwork is vying strongly for both or either and this is one of those I wont get involved in till nearer the off as it could change a bit ).

Result :Buckle changed at 15:09* –  POTTERS LADY JANE was 2nd ( Beaten in a tight photo finish having traded several times at 1.12 ) @ 8.2

and Finally for today we have the

1610 Nottingham : MR CARBONATOR as a very weak looking BB and a very strong looking Buckle in CHAMPAGNE RULES.

Result : MR CARBONATOR was a very unlucky neck 2nd @ 10/1.

A bit of After timing..

Not much to share from the last few days due to a lack of activity , time and decent opportunities however I found three that qualified today and decided to play ” stop at a winner whilst decorating ” so I had £50 on the first which surly come 2nd ( backed win only ) then had £50 EW on the 2nd selection which then ran 4th .. I was thinking ” it’s one of those days ” but persevered and then had £50 on the last selection a son of Zeberdee which was flicking between being a great BB and not qualifying at all but waited until the last second and decided to play it slightly safe and covered myself with the horse that was vying to be the BB then sat back and watched as both were 8/1 I stood to make a decent profit if either Won and then they duly come 1st and 2nd with my original selection actually winning so I wiped the smile off my face and took stock on a roller coaster day and the only thought I could muster was shit or bust I have to stick with the program as Longbow has a winning formulae for these winners with some stronger than others ( expected ) but always a profit return , this isn’t one for the betting junkies but will provide the clever investors a long term profit and hopefully over the next 12 months it will prove to be more stable.

Longbow wants to post more and Carthage is getting onboard so I feel as the season moves space we will see more action but for now just stay up to date and subscribe and watch and see….

see you tmrw .

Wednesday Summary

Let me start by saying ” Hello Shukster ” long time no see old friend ;-0, hope your well!!.

Lets summarise on where we are right now.

Total selections advised – 33

6 Winners ( 18.2% ) giving 56 Points return ( winners at 12/1,12/1,11/1,8/1,7/1,6/1 ).

With 9 others placed in double figures.

Backing Blind on the nose gives a 23 point profit.

Backing EW on all gives a return of 83 Points ( minus 66 points staking ) and a 17 Point Profit , this is interesting as I thought the return would be higher although that said we did also have 8 4th placed runners , but in a game of what ifs and butts you rarely get paid on the 4th so its just bad luck and quite frankly tough shit1.

Would you accept this as a long term betting solution? would it be enough to fill the void you feel when your not on the punt?!.

PHASE 2 :

Lets move onto the next 4 weeks and where it takes us. We have two qualifiers today for Bullet Bets.

16:10 Worcester – PEGGIES VENTURE ( Although The Bottom Bar and Victarion both share an almost identical profile an a 3 way dutch could be a smart play ) , but the shortest of these three come 5 mins before the off will become the BB.

Result : Nothing of note in a strange race.

16:20 Newmarket – CONTRIVE- This is a very strong BB selection and I think an EW double and two EW singles is the play for me @ £25.

Result :

beaten into 2nd by the shortest of noses and then had the stewards ask questions however she ended up 2nd at 10/1 having traded at 1.05

The drought continues…..

So yesterday was another miss day with one not qualified and the other coming 4th ( standard placing at the minute ) but I will not give up as its early days and with the obvious issues of a fluid and changing market making some considerable difference to the outcome a lot of this has to be taken lightly as I have no concrete data to work from or with.

The selection program and process is sound, flawed but sound, we just need to be able to stay on top of it all.

Todays first selection is in the 1330 , Baby Gal @ 12.0. – 4th @ 11.4

In the 15:05 we have ROCKSETTE @ 13.5  – 1st @ 14.0 and in the 15:35 we have DE VEGAS KID @ 9.6 – 4th @ 9/2

A nice little EW Brighton Trixie?

elsewhere .. Uttoxeter :

1 14:20 – FLEMEN MAJIC @ 13.0 – Fell

2. 15:25 – DIEG MAN @ 12.5 – Last

3. 17:05 – WITHOUTDEFAVOURITE @ 9.0 – 5th @ 7/1

These could make another nice little EW Trixie.

Finally at Carlisle .. ..

  1. 13:40 – Canny Style @ 9.8 – 5th @ 8.2
  2. 14:10 – SOME REIGN @ 9.0 – 4th @ 13.5
  3. 15:45 – LOOKSNOWTLIKEBRIAN @ 8.6 – 1st @ 12.0
  4. 16:20 – LORD GATEWAY @11.5 – last @ 28/1

and a combination of EW bets for Carlisle or a EW Lucky 15??..

 

Lets see how we get on? …