Here we go , the Annual week of carnage or celebration that is the Cheltenham Festival.
This is as good a Supreme as i can remember in recent years and for punters its a tough choice , opinions will be split , some will back with their heart and gut as logic is short.
For me i can only really name the 5 obvious one,
Mr Fisher & Angels Breath
A very positive case can be made for all 5 ( The winner will come from these ) and if you want you can back ALL 5 and still make a decent profit.
For me i think the winner will be Angels Breath as i know Nico is very keen on this free running sort however the best i can do is a dutch with FAKIR as i think the 8lb allowance for age will be enough to swing this the right way and coming up the hill that weight could make all the difference.
Not quite the start i had hoped or imagined tbh , Angels Breath was badly hampered before two out running on the inside and having to be checked right up that complete loss of momentum put paid to his chance…
However… OMFG!!!… That win by KLASSICAL DREAM was simply one of the most stunning i have ever witnessed in the Supreme and as good as any in many ways in any race, in a top quality field this was completely switched off and Ruby never pulled a muscle till he needed shaking after the last!!, swinging round the bend with the field trailing in his wake he simply cantered away…Mullins has had some stars like Vautour, Annie and Douvan but my o my this could surpass them all if can continue like that..truly stunning!!!
This is another tough punting race and the only definitive thing i can say is that i cant see the Fav Glen Forsa winning , yes it won easy lto getting an easy lead and then quickening away to annihilate a poor performing Kalishnikov but it wont get anything like that here and it will have to try and quicken off a break neck pace and will be taken on for the lead by at least three others including Clondaw Castle and Knocknanuss.
Lalor could be the answer but i dont like backing runners at Cheltenham that are running on the back of a poor run its different if changing grade or trip but just running flat is entirely different.
So for me at a decent EW price i like US AND THEM who has very useful placed form and is the sort that can improve enough to win.
RESULT: A very good 2nd for me @ 17.5 ( SP:14/1) and i also made a few sheckles laying Gran Forsa ( Fell early on when at the back )
This race is not going to be reviewed as i will simply be applying my Hcap Algorithm to this.
Bullet Bet – Coo Star Sivola
Buckle Bet – Beware the Bear
RESULT : Its a WIN for the Buckle Bet as Beware the Bear Wins for Hendo at 15.5
THE CHAMPION HURDLE
A truly epic renewal with at least five all with outstanding chances on paper.
BUVEUR D’AIR is getting my money as it goes for the treble ( having won this race for the last two years ) looks as good as ever and the loss behind stablemate Verdana Blue is forgotten as it was a nothing race.
Apples Jade has swerved a walk over in the Mares to try her hand here and the weight received again could be a decisive key but this will by far be the toughest race she has been in and probably as good as she ever will be.
Laurina is obviously a very smart mare but has achieved little and is more promise and potential although the manner in which she has won does suggest that she is well upto this and will be very much involved.
I love Espoir D’Allen but i feel this is a year too soon for this hot prospect whilst Sharja although useful is just short of what is required and Melon looks a spent force.
Verdana Blue and Brain Power both have enough about them to be involved at the finish but they will need to be at their absolute peaks without exception and take in a faultless round…that in itself is a big ask and 3rd or 4th at best is my thinking.
The top four will all like to swing round the bend however the pace will be such i feel a bit of cat and mouse will take place with Buveur coming home the strongest of all… great race and i can only hope.
RESULT : Buveur Fell when going well so who knows but the winner was the excellent Espoir D’Allen who romped away with this and made Laurina look very one paced as he just cruised by her and the field…as i stated in my notes this hot prospect is going to the very top.
The Mares Hurdle
This is the race that holds not only todays NAP but also my Joint NAP for the week ( This and ALTIOR in a big Double ).
Benie Des Dieux
All hail the new Queen Benie.
RESULT: WOW another incredible Annie Power moment as Bennie has the race won very easily i might add only for Ruby to take a tumble over the last saving the bookies a fortune ( would have been in all the big doubles n trebles )…HOWEVER unlike last time when it wiped me out i traded out at 1.12 for a nice profit….and i must say im feeling rather pleased with myself….
The Close Brothers
This is another algorithm race.
Bullet Bet – Highway One O One
Buckle Bet – Springtown Lake – Best we could manage here was a 5th @ 11/1..but a brilliant start to the week leaving me well in front..can i sustain it?, see ya tmrw…
And that for me rounds up Day 1.
Others to Note through the week,
Champ and Santini from Henderson both look to hold exciting chances and it will be a battle royale versus the might of the Elliot yard as he takes them on with Battleoverdoyen and Delta Work….two very interesting races.
The Coral is a B&B race.
Bullet – Cracking Smart
Buckle – Canardier
Queen Mother Champion Chase – ALTIOR – NAP
The Glenfarlas is a funny old race and usually i would just back Edna Bolgers runners as she likes this and does well in these however there is a bit of class in this renewal and none more than the National Winner TIGER ROLL and he looks to be the one, will be very hard to beat , jumps and stays and has a very experienced rider who has tackled the course before…cant see past it however from a betting perspective FACT OF THE MATTER at around 14/1 ( 18 on BF ) is a better bet with better rewards, his last two runs have been over this C&D with a 2nd then a 1st and comes here at his peak and if Tiger doesnt quite have it today this could be the one to mop up, decent little bet this.
The Fred Winter is a B&B race.
Bullet – Chief Justice
Buckle – Coko Beach
and in the finale of day 2 i cant see past the fav ENVOI ALLEN with JJ Codd doing the steering…
Thats all from me for now..ttfn and good luck.